[Editor’s note: the following article represents the views of the author and is likely to be controversial. It is presented here to encourage conversation about a difficult topic. I would welcome opposing views. To submit a reply send to peter@hplusmagazine.com]
Cryonics service providers offer their customers perpetual care. This care is meant to continue until medical technology has advanced to the point that their reanimation can be performed safely. While the most optimistic estimates are that reanimation may be possible in as little as fifty years, the time frame is normally considered to be hundreds of years. The poor quality of suspensions received by most persons, however, suggests that many will be reanimated only in the distant future, if at all. One of the greatest unknowns is whether these companies will be able to operate continuously over this period. An organizational failure of even a few months would terminate the experiment in medical time travel by causing irreparable damage to those in storage.
From an organizational standpoint, this offer of perpetual care is similar to that provided by the chantries established in England in the Middle Ages. Chantries were trusts established for the purpose of employing priests to sing a certain number of Masses during a stipulated period of time for the spiritual benefit of the deceased. The first perpetual Mass was established by royalty in the 1180s. Most institutions providing this service were suppressed in 1547 as part of the Reformation (Wikipedia, 2014). Therefore, the ‘perpetual’ care lasted for less than four hundred years. This is also a reasonable estimate for the amount of time that a majority of those in cryonic suspension will require before any reanimation becomes possible. However, the chantries were established as part of the Roman Catholic Church or as institutions under its direction and control. During this period, the Roman Catholic Church was as powerful as a state and was considered by many to be the governing body of Europe. In contrast, cryonics organizations are very small businesses with extremely limited resources, subject to regulation by both State and Federal governments. The key question addressed here is whether and how such organizationally inferior institutions can achieve the longevity that the most powerful organization in Europe only barely achieved in earlier times.
Organisational decline
The study of organizations shows that they go through a period of growth, followed by a period of decline, until they finally disappear. The probability of long-term survival of business organizations is extremely low. ‘Around two-thirds of businesses are still operating after five years and almost one–half are still operating after ten years’ (Bickerdyke, Lattimore, & Madge 2000, XVI). Business failure statistics show that about four percent of small businesses (1-99 employees) that enter the marketplace disappear within one year, 15 percent disappear within three years and 30 percent disappear within five years (Industry Canada 2009). While this may not sound like so high a failure rate, when repeated over a hundred years, it means that very, very few organizations survive. In fact, the hundred year survival is calculated from both sources as less than one chance in a thousand. Boulding (1950, 38) notes that organizations follow the path of
inexorable and irreversible movement toward the equilibrium of death. Individuals, family, firm, nation, and civilization all follow the same grim law, and the history of any organism is strikingly reminiscent of the rise and fall of populations on the road to extinction.
This failure dynamic is why it is so crucial to do everything possible to increase the chances of organizational survival.
The main reason for failure is inexperienced management. Managers of bankrupt firms do not have the experience, knowledge, or vision to run their businesses. Even as the firms age and management experience increases, knowledge and vision remain critical deficiencies that contribute to failure (Baldwin, Gray, Johnson, Proctor, Rafiquzzaman, & Sabourin 1997, 9).
A more accurate assessment can be made by looking at the specific risks likely to be encounter by cryonics organizations, as opposed to looking at overall trends. Both major providers operate in a problematic manner, if we consider the type of business model needed to sustain an organization over the long term. The Cryonics Institute (CI) operates with volunteer labor in many functions. The Alcor Life Extension Foundation has benefitted from very large occasional donations. It isn’t clear what the long-term effect of these inputs vanishing would be.
Political risk
One assumption is that as long as cryonics is regarded as a cult phenomenon, it will risk being prohibited should such an action appear politically opportune to even a single individual in a position of power. There can be little doubt that the current status of cryonics is that of a cult in the eyes of the general public. We can conclude from survey results (Badger 1998) that a majority of the public sees cryonics as a selfish and immoral practice, which ‘steals’ resources and opportunities from the majority of mankind and from the children of the future. This perception is reinforced by the appearance of the topic ‘cryonics’ on ‘cult’ and hoax websites. Websites such as Quackwatch, statements from public skeptics and from the President of the National Council of Health Fraud, and a resolution rejecting cryonics adopted by the Society of Cryobiology lends credible support to this view.
Direct political attacks on the industry have ranged from para-military operations, resulting in staff being dragged off to jail, to attempts by a funeral directors’ association to place a provider under inappropriate regulation, potentially making it impossible to continue operation. Another legal initiative has prohibited the marketing of cryonics. While this type of direct political interference offers the greatest immediate risk to the industry, the long-term effects of cult status is also damaging. Mainline research funding and collaboration with many respected researchers and institutions is not an option as long as cryonics is regarded as a cult phenomenon.
The continuing insistence on using language, such as ‘patient’ for those in suspension, is typically seen as inappropriate and even humorous by the average person. This gives many the excuse needed to dismiss the idea of cryonics without a second thought. We know from survey results (Badger 1998) that any thought about the benefits versus the costs of cryonics is inhibited by emotional responses triggered by death-related stimuli. This type of inappropriate language virtually ensures an immediate dismissal of the topic. Provider organizations typically explain why they use the term ‘patient,’ but the average person has already dismissed the entire idea before reaching this explanation. Also, the term ‘cryonic’ is confused with ‘cryogenic,’ even by some knowledgeable individuals, thereby impeding the development of an effective industry brand. That is, a term that is memorable and favorable, which can be used as a marketing ‘hook’ on which to hang a concept that is nontrivial to explain and understand.
There are two separate dimensions we should be aware of when considering terms. First, there is common versus technical language, for example, ‘Aspirin’ versus ‘acetylsalicylic acid.’ The second dimension is insider versus outsider language. Any cult or specialist group will routinely use terms that are foreign, meaningless, or even connoting an opposite meaning to outsiders. For example, an electrical engineer may refer to a circuit element as a ‘pot,’ meaning a potentiometer—a variable resistor. To an outsider, this would mean something to cook food in. Within cryonics there has been an effort to be more accurate by using technical language. However, these terms may be counterproductive when it comes to marketing, since these are typically technical, insider terms that may trigger entirely inappropriate associations in non-technical members of the public. The above criticism refers only to non-technical non-insider language utilization. Thus, it would apply only to publicly available information produced by the industry. Technical accuracy has been promoted as the solution to marketing problems. However, I am not aware of any successful industry that takes this approach in marketing to the public.
Another type of political risk results from the minuscule size of the cryonics industry. Regulation in related areas may make the practice of cryonics impossible in certain jurisdictions, even though no consideration has been given to cryonics at all. Recently, the State of Florida passed new regulations concerning all non-transplant uses of human tissues under the Uniform Anatomical Gift Act – the legal vehicle for transferring bodies to cryonics storage providers. The Florida Law confines accreditation in that State only to those facilities that meet the American Association of Tissue Banks’ (AATB’s) requirements and who are certified by the AATB. These regulations are not designed to accommodate cryonics and would impose an unsupportable burden on cryonics organizations.
The second problem is that, historically, the AATB has been virulently opposed to cryonics. Thus, it may be difficult for a cryonics organization to gain regulatory approval from the AATB. Therefore, by use of a non-governmental non-profit standard-setting institution, the State may indirectly make the practice of cryonics unlawful.
Neglect of scientific marketing
The almost total neglect of scientific marketing is one reason for a dysfunctional strategy. When the objective of a marketing strategy is to promote social change, as opposed to a simple product:
Andreasen (1995; cited in Lupia 2009, 66-67) offers a simple way of distinguishing civically oriented informational efforts that fail from those that succeed in their efforts… [Five effective strategies are:]
- The organization’s mission is seen as bringing about behavior change by meeting the target market’s needs and wants.
- The customer is seen as someone with unique perceptions, needs, and wants to which the marketer must adapt.
- Marketing research is vital.
- Customers are grouped in segments.
- Competition is seen to be everywhere and never ending.
Emails to the original CryoNet Mailing List, for example, show that the dominant view is that ‘The [cryonics] organisation’s mission is seen as inherently good,’ ‘Customers are the problem,’ because they are ignorant or unmotivated, ‘marketing research has a limited role’—actually none, ‘Customers are treated as a mass,’ and ‘competition is ignored,’ except for self-destructive infighting. So, we can conclude that the amateurism in marketing has succeeded in choosing five out of five ineffective strategies, virtually guaranteeing failure.
While the choice of the term ‘cryonic’ can be excused, since it was selected before resources were available for marketing research, the continuing neglect of marketing can be ascribed to a combination of ignorance and incompetence. Typically, social science is dismissed as obvious and unnecessary. However, even this doesn’t explain the resistance to new understandings of the marketing problem. For example, while religion was shown to be an important factor in the choice of cryonics by Badger’s (1998) Survey, his results and advice were ignored. It took a reanalysis of that data to show that religion was, in fact, a crucial factor. Even this result was rejected by leaders in the industry. A direct test of this prediction, that current marketing was targeting atheist millionaires, however, yielded almost the exact number of members signed up with the cryonics providers in the United States (Stodolsky 2008b). This result, combined with the results from two independent studies of attitudes towards life-extension technologies (Partridge et al. 2009; Kogan, Tucker, & Porter 2011), which showed that religious orientation was the most important predictor of attitudes, finally achieved acceptance of what in retrospect was an obvious result. There is no evidence, however, that even this has led to a change in marketing strategy.
Another conclusion from this same reanalysis can explain the current stagnation of the industry: If atheist millionaires are being targeted by current marketing, then the industry has enrolled the persons available in this market segment. We know that the choice of cryonics is highly idiosyncratic. That is, individual variation plays a large role in the decision, perhaps a larger role than religion or economic standing. Therefore, it could easily be that all the atheist millionaires that could be recruited have become members and those remaining will not sign up for highly individualistic reasons that the industry cannot influence.
The fact that current membership includes many persons that are not atheists or not millionaires is not an argument against Stodolsky’s (2008) conclusion: Knowledge of the baseline effect is important in understanding this. For example, if only .4 percent of persons are atheists, then even a marketing strategy that targets them may not result in a majority of atheists as members. If we assume that the marketing strategy is nine times as likely to recruit atheists as compared to others, then the effect would be (99.6 x .1 / .4 x .9 =) 27.6 times as many religious persons as atheists in the membership. That is, since atheists only comprise four-tenths of a percent of the population, then a 9 to 1 bias by the marketing strategy in their favour will result in atheists being outnumbered by about 28 to 1 in the membership. An unbiased marketing strategy would result in over two-hundred religious persons for each atheist in the membership.
Failure of the medical model
While the problems of the industry are not new, they have also not caused a rejection of the dominant approach. Originally, the father of the industry assumed that once people became aware of the possibility of medical time travel, there would be widespread acceptance of the option. He felt his book, The Prospect of Immortality (Ettinger 1962), would trigger a mass movement. After many years and much publicity, general acceptance had not been achieved. He eventually formed a company to provide suspension services himself. Now, more than forty years after the first man was suspended and much technical progress, acceptance remains vanishingly small.
Failure of the medical model has been attributed to the inability to demonstrate revival from the suspended state. However, a reanalysis (Stodolsky 2008b) of the Badger (1998) survey data showed that attitudes were hardly affected at all by a range of motivational statements specifying conditions which might make people more favourably disposed towards cryonics. In fact, about twenty percent, of a technologically sophisticated population—expected to be more favourable towards cryonics—, responded, ‘I would feel more favourable toward the idea of cryonics under no circumstances.’ Similarly, assuming the successful revival of a human from suspension had hardly any effect on intentions to act. While such results might seem inexplicable to supporters of the medical model, they are to be expected if we consider religiously-based objections to medical treatment. These objections have been applied to, for example, blood transfusion and immunisation against infectious diseases. Since even these widely validated and accepted medical procedures have been rejected on the basis of attitudes, it is not surprising that a more speculative and less accepted procedure does not attract proponents.
The mainstream view of cryonics is that it is an unusual interment practice. In fact, CI was, for a time, officially registered as a cemetery. Under the Uniform Anatomical Gift Act employed, persons must be declared dead prior to being processed for suspension. About half of all cases at CI are post-mortem, that is, they are signed up, by family members or others, after being declared dead. Since no marketing is directed towards this channel, we can conclude that marketing efforts are having no effect or that there is an unmet demand that is being made apparent. In fact, a cooperating funeral director recently requested that he be allowed to offer cryonics as a standard product. (A ‘cooperating funeral director’ is an establishment that has agreed to assist in the shipment of a body to a cryonics facility. In this case, F. A. Albin & Sons, London, England, UK). Therefore, we can conclude that both mainstream opinion—government—and the market are signalling the need for a strategy employing the funeral industry as a sales channel.
Funeral Industry
CI’s post-mortem cases are now getting an inferior suspension, because CI requires a two-week delay designed to reduce the risk of legal complications. If funeral directors were the contracting agents, they would be accepting any legal liability and therefore this delay could be reduced or eliminated. Another practical effect could be that cooperating funeral directors would be required to have cool-down facilities and, most likely, a transport kit, ready at all times. Once they had invested in these facilities, it would make sense to assume initially that all cases would be sent for suspension. In fact, they would be highly motivated to get all cases cooled down at the earliest possible moment, since this would make it more likely they could sell a family on cryopreservation and thus make a better profit. Finally, CI could require, or the funeral directors themselves could request, certification as cryonics transport technicians. This would give them a competitive advantage over untrained funeral directors. This cooperation with funeral directors could be segregated into a subsidiary to minimise legal liability.
Current policy has led to an adversarial relationship between cryonics organisations and the funeral industry (This has not occurred in Russia, where KrioRus has exhibited at a funeral industry convention.). It has been necessary to contribute to and to lobby supportive political figures to avoid troublesome legislation. This problem appears to be limited to Arizona at the moment. However, increased visibility of the cryonics industry could raise this issue to the national level. If it came down to who can afford to influence the most politicians, it is pretty clear the cryonics industry would be the loser. Therefore, cooperation between the two industries is very likely essential for the survival of cryonics. Cooperation would have the advantage of isolating CI from any legal liability and of generating a stream of funding for CI’s research activities. CI has developed expertise in cryogenic storage and biopreservation. This expertise could be capitalised upon by opening this sales channel.
We can conclude that the current policy of ignoring the funeral industry, as a channel, is leading to inferior suspensions for at least half of current CI cases. It is also using up funds and creating a major political risk for the cryonics industry. Much needed funding for research is also being lost by not servicing what could be a highly lucrative sales channel. There is no physical difference necessary between facilities for cryonic suspension and cryogenic interment, which could be considered an esoteric burial practice similar to having one’s ashes launched into space. The difference amounts to an intent to revive. The major barrier to implementation of this new sales channel is the self-perception of the leadership of the cryonics organisations. They would have to accept that they were participants in the funeral industry. The entire future of the cryonics industry, of those in storage, and of the many that will never be suspended because suspension is not marketed via the funeral industry is being jeopardised to maintain this self-perception by the leadership of the cryonics organisations. From the standpoint of social movement theory, the industry is maintaining its isolation from the mainstream at a time when it is technically mature enough to become a mass movement.
Targeting millionaires
The second major finding from the reanalysis of the Badger (1998) data was that marketing was targeting millionaires. While many claim that anyone can afford to signup for suspension by using life insurance, assuming that they start when they are young, it is clear that financial requirements are a major barrier. For example, we know, from numerous instances of people having to drop their suspension coverage due to financial difficulties, that cost is a barrier. We also know that a majority of the World’s population, including people with incomes under a couple of dollars a day, will never be able to sign up for financial reasons. There were already indications of this in Badger’s (1998) article. He stated, ‘Group differences based on Income approached statistical significance.’ That is, the wealthy are more likely to say, ‘I believe that cryonics is an exciting idea and intend on looking into it further.’ This was the only action item in the survey. He reported that, ‘Individuals making more than $100K were generally more favorably disposed toward cryonics.’
Another finding of a less formal nature also suggests a failed marketing approach. The New Scientist Magazine Contest, which offered a choice between a free suspension or a trip to Hawaii, resulted in 28% of those responding choosing suspension. Over half of the respondents in a more recent poll indicated that they would like to have their body frozen after death (Would you want to be brought back to life after death? 2011). Therefore, if suspension was available without cost, we could expect between about a third and a half of the population of the United Kingdom (UK) to accept it. However, even the much more conservative figure based upon the less than a half of a percent of atheists in the United States (US) still yields a potential population of 1.2 million, a figure that is vast compared to the couple of thousand members of US cryonics organizations.
We would expect with continuing economic growth that financial barriers would be reduced (Figure 1). However, ‘in 1996, young men between 25 and 34 years of age were already bringing home, in real terms, $75 less per week than their fathers were 20 years earlier’ (Pusey 2007, 10). The stagnation of the G. W. Bush years, followed by the decline associated with the Great Recession, have further reduced incomes for the overwhelming majority.
Repackaging cryonics
Funding is a major barrier to cryonic suspension for most people. Establishment of a non-profit organisation supporting pay-as-you-go funding would permit economically neutral suspension coverage. The resulting rapid expansion of coverage would permit suspension expenses to be distributed across a very large population, thereby driving down costs dramatically. An appropriate business model would permit local groups to provide fully prepaid coverage for their members, once an adequate number of persons had joined. The benefits of local organisation include superior social support for members, which could extend life, and significant political influence within a local jurisdiction, ensuring an appropriate response to cryonics emergencies.
Normally, large expenditures have to be financed in some manner, if widespread participation is desired. Examples are houses, cars, major appliances, and even mobile phones. The only currently widely available mechanism for financing a suspension is life insurance. This, however, has many potential disadvantages. First, it requires long-term economic stability, which is becoming less and less common as short-term jobs have become more prevalent. Second, such policies can be drawn down to provide for emergencies, such as expensive medical care not otherwise covered—and large numbers of persons in the US have inadequate health insurance coverage. Third, the proceeds of life insurance have sometime been claimed by relatives of cryonicists. Even when such claims fail, the legal expenses are often significant. Contestation by families, often motivated by the possibility of large cash settlements, typically results in negative press coverage. Such contestation may also delay suspensions. Finally, there are classes of individuals excluded from obtaining life insurance, such as infants, the ill, and so on. So, financing by life insurance has significant limitations as a method of making suspension affordable.
An understanding of the market in which the cryonics industry ideally is competing suggests new strategies for effective marketing. The industry competes in the ‘immortality’ market, since a new life of indefinite length is the hope of every cryonicist. However, the industry operates at a disadvantage in this market. The industry is competing with religious organizations that also offers followers eternal life, but it doesn’t offer the benefits available through and to these organizations. Effective competition requires a repackaging of cryonics. In itself, cryonics is an interment technology. It isn’t competitive in this market, because it is, at least, ten times as expensive as traditional interment. Interment is only a minor element of the offerings from religious organizations. The industry is highly competitive in offering immortality, however, since the credibility of a new life through a scientific procedure is greater than that of one offered by a mystical procedure. Effective competition, however, requires offering a comprehensive package of services matching those available from religious organizations. Finally, while there have been efforts to present life in the future as utopian by cryonicists, this type of speculation is clearly not something that should be promoted by cryonics organizations. They need to be extremely conservative in making any kind of claims as to the benefits of their services. Therefore, some other type of organization is needed, that can approach the kind of claims made by religious organizations, if competition is to be effective.
A foundation could be used to facilitate a tax-advantaged prepayment strategy, that would overcome current economic barriers to enrollment. The services a foundation offers could include weekly dinner parties where people learn healthy cooking, lectures on health-related issues, first-aid courses, storage of stem cells from umbilical cord blood, of tissues, of pets, and so on. Since the organization would have to absorb the cost of suspending a member, it would be to everyone’s advantage to keep members alive as long as possible.
Financing is a complicated topic, so I will present only a simplified example here. Let us say the income tax rate is 50% and someone donates 10% of their income to the foundation. Expense after taxes would be 5% of income. The foundation allocates 5% to current benefits and 5% to a suspension fund. Therefore, the average after-tax impact is null (expense after taxes = current benefits) and the suspension rapidly becomes prepaid. With a $100,000 yearly income, one would have $30,000 in the suspension fund after 6 years. Because it would be a collective agreement, new members would be covered immediately. Since new members would typically live for more than 6 years after enrollment, they would generate reserves for the suspension fund.
So, this financing strategy would allow prepayment through a collective agreement rather than through individual insurance policies. This results in substantial economies of scale, as well as securing tax benefits, if set up with an appropriate legal structure. A pay-as-you-go plan would be about thirty percent cheaper than insurance, so there is no reason to believe that a lack of funding by other means would bias the life expectancies of those enrolling.
Even small regular donations by a significant number of people would, over many years and with new members continually enrolling, pay for biopreserving everyone. The existential crisis usually hits in middle age, say at age 45, and people in Europe currently need suspension at about age 75. That means 30 years of 5% of income being accumulated. With an income of only 10,000 Euro per year, this would be 15,000 Euro (500 Euro x 30) or about 21,400 USD at 2011 exchange rates. So, even relatively low income, late enrollments would cover a majority of their own suspension expense. If we include the contribution of interest payments or investment returns, the full expense would most likely be covered. This model assumes whole families would signup, so most people’s contributions would start around age 20, in the long run. This would add another 25 years of payments, almost doubling the contribution. If young people are raised in an environment accepting of cryonics, they will continue to support it. However, the target for marketing should be those in middle age, when existential concerns come to the fore.
If umbilical cord blood samples were routinely stored as part of the repackaging proposed, then every youth would have the knowledge that in case of serious disease, there would be a handy source of stem cells in suspension. This is just about the best form of recruitment and it would cost very little compared to a serious marketing effort.
If enrollment was on a group basis, self selection on life expectancy wouldn’t be possible. A person would typically become a beneficiary at birth and achieve formal membership upon reaching adulthood. That membership would continue throughout life. Continued membership would be beneficial, since there would be near term goods and services making membership economically neutral, as well as the social and psychological benefits of group membership.
Previously, CI was doubling in membership every 3 years (Stodolsky 2005). In Figure 2, the 3 year and 5 year doubling times are plotted. Fitting the data from 1988 to 2004 produced a 5 year doubling time. From 1998 to 2004, growth appeared much faster, with a doubling time closer to three years—23 percent membership growth per year. The yearly growth by period (1985-1997 vs. 1998-2004) interaction was highly significant (p = 0.0018). This suggested that the growth rate had changed after 1997. After this prediction had been made, the founder of CI, Robert Ettinger, noted that CI had established its website around 1997. Even with the 5 year doubling time, in 2014 CI would have had 2,314 members. However, the declining growth rate apparent at the end of 2010 indicates only 1,082 members will be enrolled by the end of 2014. The Alcor Life Extension Foundation has a similar declining growth rate at this time.
If this new marketing model generated the growth rate achieved at CI between 1998 and 2004, then there would be a multiplication of membership by more than a thousand over a 30 year period. Just a single year’s contributions would then generate 500,000 Euro (1000 x 500 Euro) for each initial member, thus providing suspension funding for at least 10 initial members, when only one was needed. Therefore, with adequate growth, the contributions to suspension reserves could be reduced to less than a percent of income. Financial risk would be highest in the startup phase, where a few early suspensions could exhaust reserves. This risk could be covered by insurance, which would be a worthwhile additional expense for a startup.
Let’s consider another example in order to clarify the importance of the growth rate in reducing costs. If someone is paying $30,000 for a suspension now, they could pay a thousand a year for an average of thirty years of membership to fully fund their own suspension with a pay-as-you-go plan. However, since the membership would have grown by a thousand after 30 years, each new member would pay only one dollar yearly to fund old member’s suspensions. This is probably overly optimistic, but it demonstrates that the important variable is the growth rate.
The overwhelming predominance of men in cryonics raises an obvious question: Are women more hostile to cryonics than men? The difference can most likely be attributed to the greater religiosity of women—a cultural factor. For example, in the Badger (1998) Survey, men were almost four times as likely to be atheists (1.93% vs. .58%). Since this was a ‘high tech’ sample, the bias in a general population is likely to be more extreme. We know from the reanalysis of that data, that religiosity is the best predictor of attitudes toward cryonics. This imbalance is another indication that the current approach to marketing cryonics is inadequate to reach a substantial sector of the population. The proposed repackaging, which includes a substantial social component, would likely eliminate this imbalance.
An important issue is the political risk that exists until cryonics achieves widespread acceptance. One answer is a marketing strategy that increases membership by hundreds at a time, not by ones or twos at a time. Such a strategy would also open up the overwhelming majority of the potential market that will never be reached by current efforts. Political acceptance can be achieved in a smaller jurisdiction by electing cryonicists to government posts and thereby ensuring that in that jurisdiction suspension would be an option that could be carried out as a routine hospital procedure. Thus, this new approach would benefit all cryonicists, both those active and those suspended.
According to some, the biggest expense of a cryonic suspension is standby—waiting at the bedside in order to start cryopreservation immediately after death. If standby were local and volunteer (or better yet, a side-task of someone with a job with some other primary tasks), then the cost would be lower. A decent hospital has staff ready to respond at any time and most already have the equipment on hand to do a body washout—assuming the training has been given. Additional training for a clinical perfusionist would probably be pretty minor. The key to this cost saving and improvement in suspensions is getting enough political influence to ensure cooperation of a local hospital. This could be achieved by targeting small jurisdictions with a high percentage of atheists and low voter turnouts.
Beyond even the economic and political advantages of a strategy based upon recruitment of groups, as opposed to individuals, are those related to life satisfaction. Lim and Putnam (2010) find that social and participatory mechanisms in identity-based fellowships lead to the building of social networks. Subjective well-being is enhanced by participation in such networks. They suggest that enhanced life satisfaction may result from a feeling of belonging to a social group beyond the members’ immediate social circle. Traditional religious organizations take advantage of such dynamics to retain and expand their membership. Competition with such organizations will be difficult, unless these same group dynamics are mobilized. Therefore, a group-based strategy would not only be a way to improve members’ life satisfaction, but also a way to enhance growth. Life satisfaction and social support are associated with longevity. Therefore, a group marketing strategy would take advantage of a mechanism for life extension thus far ignored by cryonicists.
The repackaging strategy discussed here has been presented previously in public forums. While no obvious roadblocks have been identified, no funding has ever been made available to even investigate the feasibility of this approach. This can be explained by two factors. Probably the most important is the individualism that dominates the thinking in a substantial part of the industry. This typically leads to a summary dismissal of any strategy based upon groups. (An exception is lower rates for family members of those enrolled. However, this has had no effect on the general question of group enrolment.) Another factor is the associated focus only on improvements that would directly benefit the donors of research funding. These donors are already enrolled and therefore marketing and recruitment appears to them to be a solved problem, unless there is a perception that current business models are unsustainable in the long run. However, the optimism of those currently enrolled has been resistant to any interpretation of data as showing declining growth rates and therefore sustainability. While optimism is required to enrol for suspension, the rejection of the reality of industry stagnation could lead to disaster. We can conclude that the summary rejection of this repackaging strategy is again a function of the perceptions of industry leaders. The failure to apply well known marketing and other social science knowledge results in a majority of leaders remaining captive of an unrealistic belief system detrimental to their own survival.
Religious doctrine
Transhumanism is already repackaging cryonics by including it in a sequence of technical developments, some of which are available already. The results for cryonics are positive. Partridge, Underwood, Bartlett, and Hall (2009, 70) noted, ‘The views of the theoretically sampled transhumanist and Christian focus groups reflected in sharp relief the pro and con arguments for life-extension.’ They comment further (p. 72):
Participants for whom religious doctrines and ‘the church’ were important sources of ethical guidance were more likely to express in-principle opposition to life-extension research than people who reported having no religious beliefs. Participants who identified themselves as religious often expressed the view that life-extension was contrary to some aspects of these religious beliefs ….
A major risk with transhumanism is that people adopt it as a religious faith. That is, they feel that just believing will solve the problems of life-extension. This is not only a risk, since there are plenty of people who act on these types of views. The result can be doing nothing and just assuming the coming ‘singularity’ will solve all problems or that anti-aging drugs, new organs, and so on will become available in time for them to avoid needing suspension.
The Temple of the Vampire is a church that requires Members to signup for suspension in order to advance to the highest levels within the organization. Due to the secrecy surrounding the organization, it is difficult to determine whether this requirement has, in fact, led to increased enrollments. However, it does appear that some Members have enrolled and are active participants in cryonics and related organizations. However, there has been opposition by some cryonicists to any association between cryonics and The Temple of the Vampire, because they fear negative press and so on.
So, cryonics is already being repackaged, but not in a manner most beneficial to the growth of the industry. None of the current repackaging models reduce the financial requirements of suspension. The rewards offered are only of a motivational character. The question is which of the methods of repackaging is going to be effective in mobilizing people to work for personal and social solutions in a realistic way.
Finally, we must ask whether cryonics itself is a religion (Monette 2012), that is, a pursuit or interest to which someone ascribes supreme importance. While most cryonicists reject that it is a religion, it clearly is ascribed supreme importance. That is, cryonics is treated as a path to salvation, a way of transcending death. Lowenstein (2012) states, ‘I believe the cryonics movement, with its unified set of beliefs, its particular language and rituals, its faith in the power and impact of the as-yet unproven, is indeed a religion…’ (p. 4)
On the other hand, cryonicists argue that cryonics is a scientific approach to immortality or, at least, to a vastly extended lifespan. Unfortunately, most insiders respond irrationally when cryogenic interment is suggested as a lifestyle choice. That is, if someone wishes to be placed in storage, but doesn’t believe reanimation is possible or doesn’t wish to be reanimated, no prearrangement is available. Even though all physical parameters would be the same, the fact that their beliefs contradict those of cryonicists, would make them ineligible for cryogenic interment. The belief in cryonics, then, is the crucial determinant of whether they are acceptable as a ‘patient’ and will be placed in storage.
If cryonics is playing the role of a religion, it would explain the paradoxes previously discussed. It would explain why the funeral industry has not been used as a sales channel. Considering that cooperation with funeral directors is routine at CI, for example, this failure to open, what could be a very profitable new sales channel, is quite inexplicable in rational terms. It could also explain why a more explicitly religious framework has not been promulgated: A framework in which cryogenic interment is integral to the belief system. The answer could be that cryonics is already playing the role of a religion. This failure to promulgate a comprehensive belief system has had negative effects. It has led to the association of cryonics with tendencies that many find objectionable, such as The Temple of the Vampire. It has allowed those with transhumanist beliefs, that are known to be supportive of cryonics, to consider enrollment as unnecessary. It has limited enrollment by not taking advantages of the many benefits society provides for explicitly religious organizations. It has made the individual and organizational benefits of membership in a group of like thinking individuals unavailable. Finally, it may explain the profound failure to apply social science knowledge to the growth problems of the industry: The application of such knowledge would first and foremost require a rational assessment of the social status of cryonics. Such an assessment would conclude that cryonics is a cult, a cult that discriminates against nonbelievers. Such a conclusion would be in contradiction to the self image of insiders and therefore would be totally unacceptable. Instead, these pioneers of life-extension cling to beliefs that will likely lead to their destruction. Such a contradiction between belief and reality is typical of a religious cult.
One of the pioneers of the movement has come to a similar conclusion:
We have a profound responsibility to arrive at a world view, a morality, and code of conduct of [sic] for cryonics. That these should be reasonably inclusive and flexible there can be no doubt.
And there can be no doubt that we will neither survive as individuals nor endure as organizations, if we fail to take these most basic and necessary of steps. (Darwin 2012)
Summary
The key to survival of the cryonics industry appears to be a successful transition to the mainstream. However, continued isolationism appears to be essential to the maintenance of a preferred self-image by insiders. While insiders see themselves as ‘saving lives’ by performing an advanced form of medicine, the isolationism of the industry is actually resulting in the ‘loss’ of many lives that could be ‘saved.’ If unchanged, these cult-like beliefs and the associated isolationism will eventually lead to the destruction of the industry.
References:
Badger, W. S. (1998, December). An exploratory survey examining the familiarity with and attitudes toward cryonic preservation. Journal of Evolution and Technology, 3. Retrieved from http://www.jetpress.org/volume3/badger.htm.
Baldwin, J., Gray,T., Johnson, J., Proctor, J., Rafiquzzaman, M., & Sabourin. D. (1997). Failing concerns: Business bankruptcy in Canada. Ottawa, Ontario: Statistics Canada Micro-Economic Analysis Division. Retrieved from http://publications.gc.ca/Collection/Statcan/61-525-X/61-525-XIE1997001.pdf?.
Bickerdyke, I., Lattimore, R., & Madge, A. (2000). Business failure and change: An Australian perspective. Canberra: AusInfo. Retrieved from http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/8258/bfacaap.pdf.
Boulding, K. E. (1950). A reconstruction of economics. New York: Wiley.
Darwin, M. (2012, February 21). Through a glass darkly: Obstacles to envisioning the future of cryonics. Chronosphere. Retrieved from http://chronopause.com/index.php/2012/02/21/through-a-glass-darkly-obstacles-to-envisioning-the-future-of-cryonics/.
Ettinger, R. C. W. (1962). The Prospect of Immortality. Privately published. [(1964). Doubleday, Garden City, N.Y.]
Industry Canada. (2009). Key small business statistics. Ottawa, Ontario. Retrieved from http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/061.nsf/vwapj/KSBS-PSRPE_Jan2009_eng.pdf/$FILE/KSBS-PSRPE_Jan2009_eng.pdf.
Kogan, N., Tucker, J., & Porter M. (2011). Extending the human life span: An exploratory study of pro- and anti-longevity attitudes. International Journal of Aging and Human Development 73(1):1-25.
Lim, C., & Putnam, R. D. (2010). Religion, social networks, and life satisfaction. American Sociological Review 75(6): 914–933.
Lowenstein, A. (2012, September 8). “Cryonics movement in Brevard soldiers on after loss of key figure. Florida Today. Retrieved from http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20120909/COLUMNISTS0702/309090012/Adam-Lowenstein-Cryonics-movement-Brevard-soldiers-after-loss-key-figure?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Cimg%7CHome%7Cp&nclick_check=1.
Lupia, A. (2009). Can online deliberation improve politics? Scientific foundations for success. In Online deliberation: Design, research, and practice, edited by Todd Davies and Seeta Peña Gangadharan, 59-69. Stanford, CA: CSLI Publications.
Monette, M. (2012). The church of cryopreservation. Canadian Medical Association Journal [News] 184:7. First published March 26, 2012. doi:10.1503/cmaj.109-4145.
Partridge, B., Underwood, M., Lucke, J., Bartlett, H., & Hall, W. (2009). Ethical concerns in the community about technologies to extend human life span. American Journal of Bioethics 9: 68-76.
Pusey, M. (2007). The changing relationship between the generations. It could even be good news…? Youth Studies Australia 26(1): 9-16.
Stodolsky, D. (2005, September 8). Predicted Cryonics Institute membership to 2044. CryoNet. Retrieved from http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/dsp.cgi?msg= 26967.
Stodolsky, D. (2008a, February 12). Immortality of the Soul: A Danish history. CryoNet. Retrieved from http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/dsp.cgi?msg=30455
Stodolsky, D. (2008b, April 9). Re: atheist millionaires. CryoNet. Retrieved from http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/dsp.cgi?msg=30693.
Wikipedia. (2014). Chantry. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chantry
Would you want to be brought back to life after death? (2011, July 26). Guardian. Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2011/jul/26/cryonics-robert-ettinger.
###
David S. Stodolsky, PhD is Director and Senior Scientist at the Institute for Social Informatics. His main research focus is the application of Internet technologies to group facilitation, democratisation, scientific publishing, and the control of contagious diseases. He has also applied existential psychology to the development of death understanding and to the analysis of attitudes toward life-extension technologies.
The post The Growth and (Possible) Decline of Cryonics appeared first on h+ Media.
